When a Forecast Flops: Post-Hoc Rationalization in Climate Science

Article by Charles Rotter.

Excerpt:

Mann’s post inadvertently highlights a key issue in climate science: the gap between predictive confidence and observed outcomes. When forecasts fail, climate scientists often claim the climate system is no longer behaving predictably—implying their models are still right, just incapable of adapting to a “changing system.” This raises a critical question: If the system is behaving unpredictably, how can forecasts demand such unwavering trust, let alone justify sweeping climate policies?